We’re finally here. The biggest fight of the year. Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence “Bud” Crawford. Forget the press tours and stare-downs. When that first bell rings, the smallest details will decide who walks away with the crown. Here’s what to watch for.
- WHO WINS THE FIRST CLINCH: Crawford’s sneaky strength is his superpower. From lightweight to welterweight, nobody has bullied him physically—not Porter, not Spence, not anyone. That comes from real functional strength with a wrestling base that sticks. Canelo? He’s built like a tank, but only met his match once in Dmitry Bivol at light heavy. Whoever gives ground in the first clinch won’t just lose balance, they’ll lose the mental edge. Predicted Advantage: Crawford
2. CRAWFORD’S REACTION TO CANELO’S FIRST PUNCH: Canelo’s power is the great equalizer. We’ve seen fighters walk in with confidence, only to fold: Charlo fought to survive, Golovkin backed up, Smith’s arms looked like he went 12 rounds with a meat tenderizer. Crawford? He’s been buzzed before, but always fires back with venom. The question is: does that aggression translate when the punches are coming from a true super middleweight?Predicted Advantage: Canelo
3. WHO OWNS THE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUNDS: Canelo’s gas tank has been leaking for years—lower punch output, slower feet, less bite late. Crawford, meanwhile, is a closer, a second-half assassin who feasts when the fight drags on. The risk? A bigger man drains you faster. If Bud isn’t chewed up by early damage, the later rounds could look like a Crawford masterclass. Predicted Advantage: Crawford (slight edge)
4. THE BODY SHOT WAR: Here’s the dirty little secret: almost nobody lands to Canelo’s body. Even Mayweather and Bivol stayed upstairs to avoid counters. Crawford, though, switches stances and angles like few ever have, meaning he can sneak downstairs shots Canelo might not see. Against Madrimov, those body shots paid dividends late. But this is dangerous territory—Canelo punishes body-hunters with fight-ending counters. Predicted Advantage: Canelo
5. WHO CONTROLS THE STORY?: Judges don’t just score punches. They score narratives. In close rounds, the smaller fighter who hangs with the bigger man often steals the eye. Think Sugar Ray Leonard vs. Hagler. Think Canelo-Golovkin II. If Bud is matching Canelo stride for stride in the second half, the crowd and judges could lean toward the “little guy” proving he belongs. Predicted Advantage: Crawford
The BeatsBoxingMayhem Pick
This fight is razor-close on paper. But when the dust settles, we see Terence Crawford doing just enough, in just enough moments, to edge the scorecards.
Official Prediction: Terence Crawford defeats Canelo Alvarez by Split Decision.
Beats, Boxing and Mayhem 