The WBC and RING light-heavyweight belts will be at stake tomorrow night when Jean Pascal (25-1, 16 KOs) faces Chad Dawson (29-0, 17 KOs) in Montreal, Canada. Aside from titles, the clash will determine who “the man” to beat is at 175 pounds.
Chad Dawson became a world-recognized player overnight back on February 2, 2007 when he outfoxed Tomasz Adamek to win the WBC light-heavyweight strap. After two defenses in 2007, Dawson relinquished the belt to go on a “senior’s tour” fighting four fights with Glen Johnson and Antonio Tarver in 2008-2009. Both men were 39 years old at the time of the 2008 fights. Johnson deserved a rematch after a close first fight, but Tarver got his on boxing politics as the IBF ordered an immediate rematch.
Except for the 2008 Johnson fight Dawson’s bouts for the last two years have been pedestrian affairs. For the first time since Adamek Bad Chad has a talented fighter close to his age to prove himself against.
Dawson’s best attributes are hand speed and movement. He establishes distance early on and keeps opponents wary of his fast straight left hand. The Connecticut southpaw also knows when to explode with quick combinations and get back out of range before an opponent can retaliate. This was very clear in his last three fights; neither Johnson nor Tarver could keep up and were reduced to reaching in vain to land single Hail Mary shots.
27 year old Canadian Jean Pascal has rebounded well from his 2008 decision defeat to Carl Froch at super-middleweight. He made his light-heavyweight debut with an impressive points victory of previously undefeated and hard-puncher Adrian Dianconu. He followed up with a 10th round TKO of Silvio Branco and another decision over Diaconu.
Pascal has shown the ability to box outside and hold his ground with inside exchanges. His favorite combination from the outside is the jab-straight right. If his realizes an opponent is slower than him, he’ll occasionally lead with a left or right hook. At his best, Pascal does very good work to the body; digging hooks around his opponents guard and making them open upstairs in the later rounds. That is how he scored his most recent KO in 2009 against Pablo Daniel Zamora Nievas.
For Pascal to retain his WBC title and beat Dawson, he’ll have to follow Glen Johnson’s 2008 blueprint. Pascal is the slower man, and if he tries to get into a jabbing contest from the outside he’ll lose every time. However, Pascal is the superior inside-fighter. Dawson has the tendency to simply cover up when attacked. That gives ample opportunity for Pascal to work his hooks to the body up close. In addition, it will also give him countering opportunities upstairs if Dawson elects to trade as he did with Glen Johnson. Jean Pascal must focus on these tactics to take away Dawson’s movement and get him out of the potshotting routine he’s enjoyed in his last three fights.
Of course, Chad Dawson wants to do the exact opposite. Bad Chad has a better 1-2 (jab-straight left) in both speed and snap than Pascal. At a distance Pascal’s chances of victory are very slim. And if the champion is bold enough to launch a lead left or right hook, Dawson would be able to easily counter. From the outside Dawson can pick his spots regarding when to pounce with combinations or simply outbox Pascal behind his jab.
Emmanuel Steward predicted this fight would be a technical. That usually translates as the boxing equivalent of a chess match. And it’s a stance I agree with.
The early rounds will be tight with few punches thrown. Neither guy will want to take many chances. Those types of rounds are usually given to the boxer who is busier with his hands, especially a fighter who likes to throw flashy combinations several times a round like Chad Dawson. However, this could be nullified by the fact Pascal will be fighting in his hometown and getting cheered wildly for every punch that lands.
Chad Dawson is the better ring general and I believe in most rounds he’ll be the fighter dictating the pace and having Pascal on the defensive. Like Dawson, he freezes when punched at and normally waits until his opponent has stopped throwing completely before he’ll launch a retaliatory shot. More often than not, that habit will have him punching at air against Bad Chad. Pascal’s best moments will be when he attempts to rough Dawson up on the inside with hooks to the body. But I don’t think Pascal has the mentality nor the skill to get Dawson in that situation round after round like Glen Johnson did in 2008.
My prediction for this fight is Chad Dawson wins a competitive by clear decision over Jean Pascal, 8-4 in rounds. The atmosphere is going to be great, but it’s more a fight for the boxing purists who like to study strategy rather than a contest you’d invite friends over for.
Officials for Tomorrow Night
Referee Michael Griffin (Canada)
Judge Jack Woodburn (Canada)
Judge John Keane (England)
Judge Gerald Dayton Ritter (Oklahoma)
Beats, Boxing and Mayhem 